The contemporary Middle East cannot be understood through a single lens. Three major forces shape the region’s political and ideological landscape: Sunni Islam — comprising roughly 85–90% of the global Muslim population (approximately 1.5–1.7 billion people); Shia Islam — representing about 10–15% of Muslims worldwide (approximately 180–270 million people); and Zionism — a Jewish nationalist movement that led to the establishment of the State of Israel, continues to influence Israeli politics and segments of political support in the United States, and pursues unchallenged hegemony in the Middle East through a belief in Jewish supremacy.
To understand the current conflicts—from Yemen to Syria, from Gaza to Iran—we must understand how these three forces interact, compete, and sometimes cooperate in unexpected ways. According to Islamic theology, Islam is understood as the universal faith of all humanity, tracing back to Adam and Eve. The word Islam literally means “submission to the One God,” implying peace attained through that submission. This message of monotheism and surrender to God’s will is believed to have been the central teaching of every prophet throughout history, a theme that is repeatedly emphasized in the Qur’an.
“Indeed, the religion in the sight of God is Islam (submission to Him).” (Surah Ali ‘Imran 3:19)
“Say, [O believers], ‘We believe in God and what has been revealed to us; and what was revealed to Abraham, Ishmael, Isaac, Jacob, and his descendants; and what was given to Moses, Jesus, and other prophets from their Lord. We make no distinction between any of them. And to God we all submit.’” (Surah Al-Baqarah 2:136)
In this understanding, Jews and Christians are regarded as Ahl al-Kitab (“People of the Book”). They are believed to have received authentic divine revelations — namely the Torah, the Psalms, and the Gospel — which, in Islamic belief, were originally sent by God through His prophets.
The Core of Islam
What profoundly unites the world’s 1.8–2 billion Muslims is the Declaration of Faith (Shahada):
“There is no god but God, and Muhammad is the Messenger of God.”
Islam has two major branches — Sunni and Shia — and both share the Five Pillars of Islam: The Declaration of Faith (Shahada), Prayer (Salah), Charity (Zakat), Fasting (Sawm), Pilgrimage (Hajj). These pillars form the foundational framework of Islamic belief and practice across both traditions.
The Succession Crisis: Two Perspectives
When Prophet Muhammad died in 632 CE in Medina, he left behind a unified Muslim community but no explicit, universally accepted instructions about who should lead after him. This ambiguity created the fault line that would split Islam forever. The division between Shia and Sunni Islam — one of history’s most enduring religious schisms — did not begin with theology or doctrine. It began with a question of leadership.
The majority of Muhammad’s companions gathered and elected Abu Bakr, one of the Prophet’s closest friends and earliest converts, as the first caliph (khalifa, meaning “successor”). They believed leadership should be determined by the community’s consensus, selecting the most qualified person regardless of family lineage. Abu Bakr was followed by Umar, then Uthman, and finally Ali ibn Abi Talib — making Ali the fourth caliph in Sunni tradition.
A minority believed that Muhammad had explicitly designated his cousin and son-in-law, Ali ibn Abi Talib, as his successor — particularly at an event called Ghadir Khumm, where Muhammad reportedly declared Ali as the mawla (master/guardian) of all believers. They argue that leadership was not meant to be elected but divinely appointed, remaining within the Prophet’s family (the Ahl al-Bayt).
Ali ibn Abi Talib became caliph in 656 CE but faced constant civil strife, including the rise of the radical Kharijites, who ultimately assassinated him in 661 CE while he prayed in Kufa. His son Hassan briefly succeeded him but abdicated to Muawiyah to prevent further bloodshed, establishing the Umayyad Dynasty. When Muawiyah’s son Yazid assumed power, Ali’s younger son Hussein refused to submit. With only 72 companions, he was intercepted at Karbala in 680 CE, surrounded and massacred. His martyrdom became the defining moment of Shia identity — the eternal symbol of righteous resistance against tyranny.
Twelver Shia Islam
Twelver Shia Islam is the largest branch of Shia Islam, comprising roughly 85% of all Shia Muslims (approximately 150–230 million people).Twelvers are most notably concentrated in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Azerbaijan. They are called “Twelvers” because they believe in twelve divinely appointed Imams — successors to the Prophet Muhammad — beginning with Ali ibn Abi Talib, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad, and ending with Muhammad al-Mahdi, who is believed to be in occultation.
Twelver Shia Islam expands the Five Pillars of Islam into a broader framework of ten foundational acts. In addition to the Five Pillars, Twelver Shia doctrine emphasizes: Khums – a 20% religious levy on certain surplus income, used to support religious and communal institutions. Jihad – understood both as spiritual struggle and, under specific conditions, armed defense. Enjoining Good (Amr bil Ma’ruf), Forbidding Evil (Nahy an al-Munkar), Tawalla – devotion and loyalty to the Prophet’s family (Ahl al-Bayt),Tabarra – disassociation from those regarded as historical opponents of the Prophet’s family.
These additional Shia obligations carry significant geopolitical weight, underpinning political resistance, revolution, and the struggle against oppression. In Shia tradition, martyrdom is highly honored, representing the ultimate sacrifice in the pursuit of justice and faith. This answers why many Shia communities, such as those in Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen, express such unwavering support for Sunni Palestinians against Israeli occupation — sometimes even at great personal cost — while many surrounding Sunni‑majority Arab states adopt a more restrained political stance.
Twelver Shia Islam developed around twelve divinely appointed Imams, all descendants of Ali and Fatimah, nearly all of whom faced persecution by ruling caliphates. The twelfth Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi, entered occultation in 874 CE and is believed to be alive, awaiting his return to establish global justice. This belief directly underpins Iran’s political system through doctrine of Wilayat al-Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist). According to this doctrine, in the Imam’s absence, qualified Islamic jurists hold the authority to govern as his deputies — a principle that justifies the Iran’s Supreme Leader’s combined religious and political power.
The Martyr : Iran’s Calculated Response
On February 28, 2026, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989 — was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran that also targeted other senior officials and also resulted in the tragic deaths of 165 schoolgirls. The attack carries profound implications for both the Islamic Republic and the wider region. It has triggered a 40-day national mourning period and elevated Khamenei to the status of a martyr in Shia theology — potentially strengthening regime resilience rather than destabilizing it. The strike was part of a broader operation — unlawful under international law — carried out by Zionist forces under the pretext of regime change and false accusations of nuclear weapons development, despite the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirming no evidence of such a program and a standing fatwa by Khamenei himself explicitly prohibiting the development of nuclear arms. This pattern aligns with what retired U.S. General Wesley Clark disclosed in 2007: that shortly after 9/11, a senior Pentagon official told him the Bush administration had already drafted plans to effect regime change in seven countries over five years—Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, and ultimately Iran.
In response, realizing the existential threat it faces, Iran has launched a massive retaliatory campaign against Israeli and American assets, striking with missiles and drones at all neighboring countries that host American bases and Israeli institutions. This raises a critical question: what is Iran’s strategy going forward? Iran’s counter-strategy, while asymmetric, is not random — it is very deliberately calculated. Iran knows it is no military match for the combined strength of the United States, Israel, and potentially NATO. Yet what the West underestimates is that Iran has spent the last 20 years war-gaming every scenario and preparing accordingly. For now, their strategy can perhaps best be summed up in a defiant Urdu phrase: “We will go down, but we will take you all down with us.”
faznotes.com 
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