The leaders of Arab countries have demonstrated remarkable restraint during this Middle East crisis, avoiding escalation and resisting the Zionist trap of ‘divide and rule’ aimed at drawing the Arab world into a broader conflict. In any military confrontation, decision-makers analyze multiple scenarios using strategic calculations similar to game theory.It is difficult to imagine that American and Israeli war planners had not already considered the possibility of Iran targeting U.S. bases or Israeli diplomatic facilities — which are notorious for acting as intelligence hubs. Such scenarios could potentially provoke reactions from host Arab countries defending those facilities, creating a pathway toward a wider Arab-Iranian confrontation and possibly even a broader Sunni-Shia regional conflict — an outcome that would serve American and Israeli strategic interests.
However, these predictions have not materialized, owing to the strategic patience demonstrated by Arab leaders. On Monday, US Senator Lindsey Graham criticized Saudi Arabia for not attacking Iran and threatened ‘consequences’ for other Gulf countries if they do not join the US-Israeli war on Iran—a conflict the Kingdom has opposed from the outset.
There have also been reports and allegations circulating in media discussions about Mossad and CIA intelligence operations and potential false-flag incidents aimed at further escalating tensions in the region. Some commentators, including Tucker Carlson, have raised claims that Mossad agents were involved in an attack on a refinery in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, recent incidents — such as the reported attack on a desalination facility in Iran attributed by Israeli media to the United Arab Emirates, a claim firmly denied by UAE authorities — have sparked considerable debate regarding covert operations and their role in regional destabilisation.
Ultimately, the leadership of the Gulf countries may use these developments as an opportunity to reflect on and reassess their strategic relationships with the United States and Israel. The economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are largely built and sustained by vast expatriate workforces who, in many cases, place greater trust in these leaderships than in their own governments back in their home countries. For many expatriates — especially those from South Asia, who constitute a significant share of the population in several Gulf states — these countries represent stability, opportunity, and a geopolitically neutral economic hub, often compared to models such as Switzerland or Singapore. Their aspirations are tied to a peaceful, business-oriented Middle East rather than one defined by geopolitical conflicts.
The following is an ambassadorial dialogue that took place during a meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the heads of diplomatic missions of Arab states (ambassadors) in Moscow on March 5, 2026. It illustrates the shared concerns raised by both GCC nations and Iran on key regional issues.
Arab Representative Question
On behalf of the ambassadors in Moscow, I would like to thank Your Excellency for convening this meeting. I would also like to express, on behalf of the Arab countries of the Gulf, our appreciation for the recent telephone conversation between your President and our leaders.
Our countries, along with the wider Arab Gulf region, are currently facing aggression from Iran, which poses a serious threat to our civilian infrastructure. Over the past week, many people have been killed. We recognize that Russia maintains a special strategic relationship with Iran. Therefore, we hope that Russia will play a greater role and exert influence on Iran to halt this aggression against our countries.
As you mentioned, it is well known that our nations are not parties to this conflict. We did not initiate hostilities against Iran. I would therefore like to convey a message from our countries that Russia, given its strong position on this matter, could help bring an end to this aggression. We value our strategic relations with Russia and hope that greater pressure can be applied on Iran to immediately stop these actions. Such steps would also help de-escalate tensions across the region.
Sergey Lavrov
The group of Arab states on whose behalf you are speaking did indeed issue warnings. Many Arab monarchies publicly stated that the situation should not escalate into a military confrontation and that they would not make their airspace available for such operations.
However, when the situation escalated despite your repeated appeals to the United States and Israel, did you condemn the actions that the United States and Israel initiated? Did you condemn the deaths of 170 schoolgirls?
I believe we must adopt a consistent and principled position. We oppose the suffering of the Gulf countries on whose behalf you are speaking. We do not believe that these developments provide any military advantage to our Arab colleagues. Likewise, it is highly doubtful that Iran gains anything politically from these events; if anything, the opposite may be true.
At the same time, we cannot accept a logic in which Iran’s actions are deemed unacceptable while everything carried out by the United States and Israel remains beyond discussion. Do you see my point? It is quite clear.
We are calling for an immediate cessation of the aggression. We would sincerely welcome the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and all the countries represented here adding their voices to this call.
Additional Commentary
Dmitry Medvedev, the former Russian president and current senior security official, has also issued a warning to Gulf nations regarding the presence of U.S. military bases:
“The Gulf Arab countries allowed American bases on their territory, naively expecting protection from them. The United States simply uses them while protecting only one country(Israel). Think carefully about whether you really need U.S. bases — they are not protection; they are a threat.”
faznotes.com 
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